lördag 19 december 2015

Inköp dec-15

Jag fortsätter köpa retail som passerat 40% av portföljen. Aktieandelen har passerat 90% för första gången sedan jag började investera 2009. Timingen känns illavarslande med tanke på att S&P500 nosar på historisk toppvärdering. Men min strategi är att fortsätta investera så länge jag hittar bolag prissatta långt under mitt estimerade värde.

Hornbach Holding (60€)
Hornbach vinstvarnade i förra veckan vilket gjorde att kursen rasade 20%. Jag anser att Mr Market överreagerar och passar på att öka.

Om vi börjar med att se på tillgångsvärde så tar nuvarande börsvärde höjd för att fastigheterna endast är värda ursprunglig investering (vilket verkar konservativt med tanke på att 75% av butiksinvesteringarna är äldre än tio år och 20% äldre än tjugo år) samtidigt som övriga materiella tillgångar, ex cash, är värda 50% av bok.
Om vi istället ser på intjäning och värderar HH som ett fastighetsbolag, dvs med noll fastighetsavskrivning, blir tio års skuldjusterat PE ca 9. Om vi inkluderar fastighetsavskrivningar blir tio års skuldjusterat PE ca 14.Värt att betänka är att försäljning och tillgångar ökat ca 50% sedan 2005.

Kvalitativt då? Hornbach har högst försäljning/yta bland de stora tyska byggkedjorna (källa Hornbach Baumarkt årsredovisning). Marknadsledaren OBI har t.ex. 25% lägre försäljning per kvadratmeter trots att Hornbachs butiker är 50% större (källa OBI hemsida). Detta innebär att Hornbach kan erbuda lägre priser och/eller högre personaltäthet än konkurrenter.

Hornbach Holding svarar nu för 13% av portföljen.


Tesco PLC (145p) 
Tesco handlas på 18-årslägsta och sliter på de flesta fronter. Försäljningen hålls uppe genom stora prissänkningar vilket resulterat i obefintlig lönsamhet. Med soliditet kring 30% är den obefintliga lönsamheten oroande. Största delen av Tescos skulder är dock inte räntebärande. Om Tesco sålde den internationella verksamheten skulle det allra mesta av nettoskulden kunna amorteras.

Justerat för avyttringen av Homeplus (Sydkorea) är Tesco EV/S ca 0,30 vilket är i linje med Sainsburys. Värderingen av T och S tar höjd för att butikerna endast är värda ursprunglig investering trots att brittiska fastighetspriser ökat 200% sedan 1995. Smolket i bägaren är att bolagen har stora hyresåtaganden men viktigt att komma ihåg är att hyreskontrakten även ger tillgång till fastigheter. 

Tesco svarar nu för 16% av portföljen.

lördag 12 december 2015

Hornbach vinstvarnar - kursen rasar

Hornbach har tidigare prognostiserat oförändrad vinstnivå mot fjolåret men upplever nu en kraftig försämring av den tyska byggvarumarknaden. Hornbach estimerar att koncernens EBIT för sep-nov är 40% lägre än ifjol.

Som följd av vinstvarningen rasade Hornbach Baumarkt med ca 10% och Hornbach Holding med ca 20% (se tidigare inlägg för info kring koncernens uppbyggnad). Jag finner det mycket märkligt att kursen på holdingbolaget rasat mer än byggmarknaden. Holdingbolagets intjäning (med 50% fastighetsuthyrning) är rimligen säkrare än byggmarknadens.
 
Jag anser att Mr Market överreagerar och jag planerar öka i Hornbach Holding nästa vecka.
Med värdering av fastigheter enligt ursprunglig investering uppgår holdingbolagets P/B till 0,7.
Although the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around 43% to € 21.3 million (2014/2015: € 37.2 million). This severe downturn in quarterly earnings related above all to the DIY store business in Germany. Despite sales remaining virtually unchanged on the previous year, the earnings performance here was adversely affected by higher costs and a lower gross margin. - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
Although the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around 43% to € 21.3 million (2014/2015: € 37.2 million). This severe downturn in quarterly earnings related above all to the DIY store business in Germany. Despite sales remaining virtually unchanged on the previous year, the earnings performance here was adversely affected by higher costs and a lower gross margin. - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
Although the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around 43% to € 21.3 million (2014/2015: € 37.2 million). This severe downturn in quarterly earnings related above all to the DIY store business in Germany. Despite sales remaining virtually unchanged on the previous year, the earnings performance here was adversely affected by higher costs and a lower gross margin. - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
lthough the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
Although the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around 43% to € 21.3 million (2014/2015: € 37.2 million). This severe downturn in quarterly earnings related above all to the DIY store business in Germany. Despite sales remaining virtually unchanged on the previous year, the earnings performance here was adversely affected by higher costs and a lower gross margin. - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
Although the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around 43% to € 21.3 million (2014/2015: € 37.2 million). This severe downturn in quarterly earnings related above all to the DIY store business in Germany. Despite sales remaining virtually unchanged on the previous year, the earnings performance here was adversely affected by higher costs and a lower gross margin. - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf
Although the HORNBACH Group increased its consolidated sales for the period from September to November 2015 by 5.7% to € 926 million, based on initial preliminary figures consolidated operating earnings (EBIT) for the same period fell year-on-year by around 43% to € 21.3 million (2014/2015: € 37.2 million). This severe downturn in quarterly earnings related above all to the DIY store business in Germany. Despite sales remaining virtually unchanged on the previous year, the earnings performance here was adversely affected by higher costs and a lower gross margin. - See more at: http://hornbach-holding.de/en/news/newsdetail_9728.html#sthash.JcHTZYul.dpuf

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