Dagens rekordhöga lönsamhet
Warren Buffett kommenterade bland annat en artikel han skrev 1999 (ref tidigare blogginlägg i ämnet);
Q: In your 1999 article in Fortune Magazine you stated your belief that after tax corporate profits were unlikely to hold much above 6% for any sustained period. Not only due to competition but also due to public policy. [...] Since 2008, after tax corporate profits have been 8-10% of GDP. Do you believe that is a permanent shift or will US profits revert to the 4-6% that was normal in the 20th century?
WB: The four largest companies by market value [Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook] don’t need any net tangible assets. They’re not like AT&T, GM or ExxonMobil requiring lots of capital to produce earnings. American industry has gotten incredibly more profitable in aggregate in the last 20-30 years. [...] This has become somewhat of an asset-light economy [...] Carnegie built a steel mill and paid it off and then built another and so on. All were enormously capital intensive, and now money is in asset light and negative asset business. IBM has a minus tangible net worth– this is not the world we lived in thirty years ago, and I didn’t see it coming."
Vad jag uppfattade kommenterade herrarna bara indirekt dagens rekordhöga värderingar (all-time-high enligt flera nyckeltal) när de talade om Berkshires rekordstora kassa, svårigheten att hitta köpvärda objekt och betydelsen av tålamod. Munger nämnde att många av dagens förvärv görs till prislappar som kräver hög belåning.
Guld och kryptovalutor
WB: "Nonproductive assets remain that way. Gold at the time of Christ to now has a compound rate of a couple tenths of percent. These assets won’t deliver anything other than supposed scarcity, but so what, what does it produce itself? All this is is counting on someone else later on trying to buy a nonproductive asset because they can sell it for a higher price.
[...] In the end, you make money on productive assets. You go based on what an asset will produce versus hoping tomorrow morning the price will be higher, and you need more people coming than going. And it can feed on itself for a while, but cryptocurrencies will come to bad endings"
Warren kommenterade vidare att han ser långa räntepapper som "terrible investment at current rates"; 3% ränta är inte attraktivt när FED gör "whatever is in their power" för att nå 2% inflation. WB gör betraktelsen att statspapper genom historien nästan aldrig varit en attraktiv långsiktig investering.